Africa History

Friday, 31 October 2014

[AfricaRealities] Fw: DHR Rwanda - Burkina Faso a warning to other African leaders.

Subject: *DHR* Rwanda - Burkina Faso a warning to other African leaders.

Burkina Faso a warning to other African leaders
on October 31, 2014 / in Politics 5:20 pm / Comments
Nairobi – Violent clashes in Burkina Faso that led to the overthrow of the president are a stark warning to other African leaders pushing constitutional change to hang on to power, analysts say.
Chaos in Burkina Faso erupted this week as lawmakers prepared to vote to allow 63-year-old Blaise Compaore — who took power in a 1987 coup — to contest elections in November 2015.
People celebrate in the capital Ouagadougou after Burkina Faso's embattled President Blaise Compaore announced earlier on October 31, 2014, he was stepping down to make way for elections following a violent uprising against his 27-year rule. Blaise took power in a coup in 1987 but quickly swapped the "democratic revolution's" Marxist ideals for authoritarian rule. AFP PHOTO
While Compaore was forced out Friday, Burkina Faso is far from alone in having a president reluctant to relinquish office.
"It is a warning both to ageing regimes and for those trying to stay in power beyond constitutional limits," said Thierry Vircoulon of the International Crisis Group (ICG).
"During the Arab Spring the question was whether Africa will have its own spring? Perhaps the attempts to change the constitutions will lead to it now."
Countries including Benin, Burundi, Congo-Brazzaville, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda are all reportedly pondering change to allow their leaders a third term.
But the impact of events in Ouagadougou, and the storming of its parliament, may give several leaders across the continent "pause for thought", said Paul Melly from Britain's Chatham House.
"Burkina Faso has demonstrated that in today's Africa popular acquiescence cannot be taken for granted," Melly said.
– 'Wake-up call for presidents' –
Burkina Faso is far from the first country where heads of state seeking to extend their rule have been challenged.
In Niger, Mamadou Tandja was ousted by the army in 2010 after a third-term bid, while in contrast, Senegal's President Abdoulaye Wade lost 2012 elections despite winning constitutional permission to run three times.
Some have carried it off. Cameroon's Paul Biya, in power since 1982, successfully changed laws for another term in 2011, but the strongman had ensured the opposition was quashed.
Other nations were laws have been tinkered with to the benefit of their leaders include Algeria, Angola, Chad, Djibouti and Uganda.
But events in Ouagadougou may ring alarm bells for others.
"The evolving situation in Burkina Faso will hopefully serve as a wake-up call for presidents who are considering tailoring the constitution to suit their own interests, in west Africa and beyond," said David Zounmenou, from the South African-based Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
And while the African Union sanctions those who make constitutional changes for the purpose of staying in power, such threats have had little impact, Zounmenou added.
Countries vary and not all leaders have been in power for as long as the 27 years Compaore lasted, Vircoulon said, noting that a crucial factor would be "the state of mind" of the people.
In tightly controlled Rwanda, allies of strongman President Paul Kagame have called for referendum to change the constitutional to allow him to run in 2017.
In contrast, the political climate in neighbouring Burundi is far more volatile for President Pierre Nkurunziza, who is expected to defy critics to run for a third term next year.
"Authoritarian traditions are still influential in some countries," Melly said. "Few would bet against Kagame or Congo-Brazzaville's Denis Sassou-Nguesso successfully pushing through a rule change to open their way to further terms of office."
For others however the risks are greater.
Burundi's Nkurunziza and DR Congo's Joseph Kabila might "be "tempted to follow suit –- although for them it could be a higher risk exercise, governing countries with vocal civil society and state machines of limited establishment power," Melly added.
And while Compaore's fall may provide a lesson to some, many will still be tempted.
It is "up to the citizens to take responsibility to counter these political adventurers who undermine democracy and the promotion of lasting peace," Zounmenou added, lamenting Africa's reputation as a place of non-stop crises.
"It is time to change that, to make democratic structures outside individual politicians to allow socio-economic development," he said.
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- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/10/burkina-faso-warning-african-leaders/?#sthash.O4g5XeU1.dpuf

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[AfricaRealities] Kagame - Burkina Faso - Revolution or Protest?

After Blaise Compaore , the next is the dictator and war criminal Paul Kagame. Kagame hopes to get a peaceful and luxury retirement while thousands of bodies of people he killed are buried in Uganda, RD Congo, Rwanda and other countries. He hopes to be exonerated for his crimes because he uses foreign aid to pay bribes to hungry white people who write praising books and media articles about him. Kagame does not know that everything that was started has an end. This is the same for Yoweri Museveni. Let's wait and see !

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From: "Jean Bosco Sibomana sibomanaxyz999@gmail.com [Democracy_Human_Rights]" <Democracy_Human_Rights@yahoogroupes.fr>
To: Sibomana Jean Bosco <Sibomanaxyz999@gmail.com>
Sent: Friday, 31 October 2014, 16:39
Subject: *DHR* Kagame - Burkina Faso - Revolution or Protest?

Burkina Faso - Revolution or Protest?
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Photo: Fasozine
More than one million people to the streets to deter President Blaise Compaore from changing the constitution of Burkina Faso in order to a third term in 2015.
ANALYSIS
By Paul Melly
Have we been watching Burkina Faso's people power revolution – or just a wave of angry urban protest that will be contained as President Blaise Compaoré's regime regains its nerve?
Burkina Faso rarely makes the headlines. It is less known for politics than for hosting Africa's leading film festival.
President Blaise Compaoré has sought to retain domestic support and international confidence through economic development, presenting himself as the face of stable continuity. West Africa's preeminent diplomatic crisis mediator, he is also a key security ally of the West.
But Compaoré's regime now faces its gravest crisis since he seized power almost 27 years ago following the unexplained murder of his close colleague, the charismatic revolutionary leader Thomas Sankara.
Now in 2014, seeking to change the constitution so he could run for up to three more consecutive terms of office – starting with next year's presidential election – he appears to have pushed popular acceptance beyond breaking point.
Earlier this week, hundreds of thousands of people filled the streets of Ouagadougou to demonstrate against a planned parliamentary vote to approve the constitutional change.
Confident it was assured the votes of the necessary 75 per cent majority of parliamentarians, the regime decided to go ahead with the vote anyway. The debate was scheduled for yesterday morning.
But it had to be abandoned after demonstrators broke into the national assembly and set it on fire. They also forced national television off air before moving on to gather outside the presidential palace.
Protesters also trashed the home of a government parliamentarian, the hotel where parliamentarians were reportedly lodged before the constitution debate, and the home of the president's brother François. There have been protests in Bobo Dioulasso, the country's second city too, while in Fada Ngourma protesters had already looted the office of the ruling Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) earlier in the week.
While loyalist security forces such as the presidential guard tried to resist the protesters – around 30 of whom were killed – some army units appear sympathetic to the demonstrators.
Compaoré appeared on television last night insisting he would remain in office through a transition before handing power to 'the elected president' – vague wording apparently intended to keep his options open.
But the opposition has maintained pressure with further demonstrations and this morning an armed forces chief of staff spokesman has addressed crowds in Ouagadougou, promising that the army will oversee a democratic transition.
A joint United Nations/African Union/ECOWAS mediation team is set to meet key players in Ouagadougou today.
What will it mean?
Have we been watching Burkina's people power revolution – or just a wave of angry urban protest that will be contained as the regime regains its nerve?
At the very least, these events demonstrate the depth of urban disenchantment with Compaoré, who has never commanded the sort of popular affection felt for Sankara – posters of whom are still widely on sale on Ouagadougou street stalls more than 26 years after his death.
There is anger at the growth of corruption. A once admired focus on grassroots development has faded, while a well-connected elite has grown prosperous. Three years ago, a wave of army mutinies over soldiers' pay and conditions exposed the state machine as more fragile than had been imagined.
It is against this context that the proposal relaxation of presidential terms limits finally breached public tolerance.
It was also a drastic misjudgement of political tactics on the part of the regime. If, as originally expected, Compaoré had opted for a referendum to secure constitutional change, he might well have pulled it off – using his presidential profile to mobilise the vote of the placid rural majority in his favour.
Instead, it is the very immediate survival of his presidency that is in now jeopardy.
African impact
There is much speculation about the wider implications for Africa – where a number of other presidents also appear to have designs on relaxing constitutional term limits. Only last week, addressing a Chatham House audience, Rwanda's Paul Kagame dropped a broad hint of designs in this direction.
But the impact of this week's events in Ouagadougou – watched across the continent on satellite TV – may vary, depending on the region.
They must surely give pause for thought to President Thomas Boni Yayi of neighbouring Benin – where any attempt to change term limits would dramatically challenge a well-established tradition of regular democratic changes of power.
Indeed, the entire Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) bloc is formally committed to respect for constitutional democracy.
In Niger, a third term bid by former president Mamadou Tandja provoked his removal by the army in 2010, followed by a transition to new elections. In Senegal, President Abdoulaye Wade did manage to change the rules, only to be punished by the voters with crushing defeat in the subsequent election in 2012.
However, political culture in central Africa and the Great Lakes is rather different and authoritarian traditions are still influential in some countries. Few would bet against Kagame or Congo-Brazzaville's Denis Sassou-Nguesso successfully pushing through a rule change to open their way to further terms of office.
Burundi's Pierre Nkurunziza and Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo might also be tempted to follow suit – although for them it could be a higher risk exercise, governing countries with vocal civil society and state machines of limited establishment power.
Burkina Faso has demonstrated that in today's Africa popular acquiescence cannot be taken for granted.
Paul Melly is an Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House. This article was updated on 31 October.
More on This
AU Deeply Concerned By the Unfolding Situation in Burkina Faso
The Chairperson of the Commission of the African Union (AU), Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, has expressed deep concern … see more »
This article was originally posted on the Chatham House website.
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SIBOMANA Jean Bosco
Google+: https://plus.google.com/110493390983174363421/posts
YouTube Channel: http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL9B4024D0AE764F3D
***Fuseau horaire domestique:
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Envoyé par : Jean Bosco Sibomana <sibomanaxyz999@gmail.com>