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[AfricaRealities.com] Coup in Burundi: a logical sequence of events

 


 
 
Charles Kambanda posted in Friends of Reason
 
   
Charles Kambanda
May 13 at 7:44am
 
A coup, in Burundi , was a logical sequence of events. The question has always been " when?" and by " who?". It was imperative to think through " damage" control to ensure that innocent people from all sides do not die. Whether or not the international community would approve of the coup wasn't an issue. 

Any passing minute would lead to escalation. Legally, Nkurunziza was safe, not politically. Kagame was dying for control over Burundi. The US and its allies couldn't wait getting rid of Nkurunziza because he was not " working" well with Western business corporations; Nkurunziza turned " East". There was the 3rd term pretext for the " West" to hit hard on Nkurunziza. Russia and China did their best to " save" their man but they had no possible sustainable means to protect Nkurunziza. 

Tanzania and South Africa, Nkurunziza government guarantors could not support Nkurunziza's third tern bid as that would be a political burden for the two countries known for strong democracy. However, Kagame who was another major player in the mess in Burundi was determined to influence the course of events. It was clear that the mess would lead to a coup and probably horrific crimes and Kagame was set to " enthrone" his man. 

Tanzania and her Eastern allies had to move fast to preempt Kagame and his western allies. The timing was perfect; Nkurunziza was in Tanzania. Meaning that there was no extra formality to remove Nkurunziza from Burundi. The former Nkurunziza chief spy is close to Tanzania than Nakurunziza himself.The former spy brought sanity and professionalism into Burundi's security agencies.Most importantly, the commander of the coup in Burundi will probably take Kagame's nonsense and he's popular in the ruling party. 

The planners of the coup must have concentrated on a number of issues: (a) salvaging the ruling party, which had been torn apart by Nkurunziza's bad choices (b) keep Kagame out of Burundi (b) make sure Nkurunziza exits peacefully without international arrest warrant, (c) make sure nobody commits international crimes which would give the west another pretext to control politics and the economy (d) keep Burundi's security services intact. It appears the coup planners made it. Will they sustain the coup and its objectives? Probably yes. 

Will the coup boss be accepted by a cross section of the Tutsi community or he's considered " radical"? Will Kagame give up on his plans to destabilize Burundi as a get way to destabilizing Tanzania and DRC? Will the west accept the coup leader? Will the coup leader make the ruling party too strong to allow opposition parties to have members and influence? Will the coup leader seek to run for president? Depending on how they answer these, and other questions, Burundians will enjoy peace and stability.
 
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