Hard times ahead for brewers in bid to maintain profit margins

The EastAfrican - 5 hours ago
By JOINT REPORT The EastAfrican
Posted Saturday, June 28 2014 at 11:49
Regional brewers are increasingly facing challenges of higher
taxation, growing competition and more financing costs as a result of
increased investments. FILE Nation Media Group
IN SUMMARY
Increased taxation of alcohol by governments across the region is
expected to put considerable pressure on margins. Low consumption of
beer in the region is expected to offer room for volume growth. This
growth will be at both the high end premium market.
Bralirwa, the Rwanda Stock Exchange listed brewer, last week
commissioned its $34 million soft drinks plant, which is expected to
help boost earnings.
The new plant comes at a time when regional brewers are increasingly
facing challenges of higher taxation, growing competition and more
financing costs as a result of increased investments. These challenges
have seen share prices of the region's listed alcohol manufacturers
drop.
READ: Bralirwa eyes higher volumes with new plant
Bralirwa has shed almost half of its value, with the counter now
trading at Rwf460 ($0.68) from a peak of Rwf860 ($1.28) at the
beginning of the year.
EABL is trading at Ksh280 ($3), having lost four per cent since
January. Tanzania Breweries Ltd (TBL) is the best performing counter,
having gained 20 per cent since January.
But increased taxation of alcohol by governments across the region is
expected to put considerable pressure on margins. For example, EABL
says volumes on its Senator beer fell by 80 per cent, following a
decision by the government to introduce a 50 per cent excise duty on
keg beer.
"The emerging beer market is very price-sensitive. The increased taxes
mean that the price of Senator is out of the reach for most in this
market and this will affect volumes," said Kuria Kamau, an analyst at
Kestrel Investment bank.
Bralirwa has also suffered from the tough regulatory rules adopted by
the Democratic Republic of Congo, with the Rwandan beer maker saying
total beer volumes remained flat in the year ending December 2013 at
around 1.65 million litres, the same as 2012.
Since the establishment of a brewery just outside Goma in early 2013,
DRC has raised the import tariff on beer from $2.9 to $5.74 per crate
and introduced a higher charge for quality standard verification, from
$0.48 to $0.91 per bottle rack. These increases and the end of
Bralirwa's licence to produce and sell Guinness Foreign Extra Stout
last year, have also affected pricing.
READ: Congo slaps tax on Rwandan beer
Analysts say that with beer volumes remaining subdued, future earnings
will depend more on beer prices than on quantity sold. The say that
manufacturers will increasingly opt to pass any rise in costs onto
consumers as they seek to preserve their profit margins.
But the low consumption of beer in the region is expected to offer
room for volume growth. This growth will be at both the high end
premium market — supported by the region's emerging middle class — as
well as the low end market as increased earnings in this segment
attract people away from illicit alcohol to consuming entry level
brands.
READ: EA beer market wars leave investors spoilt for choice
According to Plato Logic, a beer market specialists firm, South
Sudan's average alcohol consumption per annum is two litres per capita
while Tanzania's is nine litres. This is much lower than South Africa,
which consumes 60 litres per capita.
"We believe that with the right catalyst, there could be strong
catch-up growth in consumption," said Mr Kuria.
In Kenya for example, new brands that target the high margin spirits
and beer drinkers are setting up shop. Bacardi has opened its first
African office in Nairobi, while drinks like Jameson Irish whisky and
Hennessy are chipping away at the high-end market. Heineken has set up
shop and SABMiller has also re-entered the market.
Keroche Brewers — Kenya's second largest beer manufacturer — is in a
growth mode and expects its Ksh2.5 billion ($28.9 million) expansion
plans to grow the brewer's production capacity tenfold to 100 million
litres annually, which should gain it a double-digit market share in
two years.
In Tanzania, the war between the two major players — Serengeti and TBL
— will be decided by who controls the distribution chain. Serengeti
has a 30 per cent market share, while TBL controls over 65 per cent of
the market share.
Serengeti, which is owned by EABL, pulled its product from the shelves
last year as it sought to build its own distribution chain.
"We believe that by Serengeti Breweries developing its own
distribution network, it will be able to sustainably grow its sales
and increase its market share. The benefits of the new route to
consumer strategy had already been realised by the second half of this
year. As the performance in Tanzania continues to improve and the new
distribution model is put in place, we expect to see more new products
from Kenya being distributed by Serengeti Breweries," said analysts
from Kestrel Investment Bank.
By Peterson Thiong'o and Alex Ngarambe
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